European rugby is in for a cracking showdown next weekend as the pool stages of the Heineken Cup come to a climax. The permutations are seemingly without end, with just four teams assured of a place in the quarter finals and, of them, only Harlequins having locked down a home draw.

The pool by pool breakdown is complex and, whatever happens, what is certain is that the final quarter final lineup will not be known until the final whistle blows at around 4.45pm on Sunday afternoon.

First, the current state of affairs with regard to the pool winners and leaders.

Pool Winners/Leaders After Round 5

 

After that, we’ll be looking at the teams who still have a chance of playing in the quarter finals.

Remaining Teams Who Can Still Qualify

Now, into the pools themselves. Ladies and gentlemen, brains and calculators at the ready…

 

Pool 1: Saracens, Munster and Racing Metro all still alive

Final Fixtures: Sunday 12:45pm

• Saracens vs. Edinburgh
• Munster vs. Racing Metro

Permutations

Both Munster and Saracens can theoretically win the group but with Saracens at home to awful Edinburgh it’s all about Munster and Racing duelling for the runner-up slot.

If Munster get a bonus point win (20pts) they’ll need Leinster not to score one more try than them, Toulouse not to be a runner up on 20 points and Montpellier to get nothing from Toulon.

If Munster win but fail to get a bonus point (19pts) they’ll be dependent on at least four of the following occurring:

•  Montpellier coming out of the Toulon match without a single point
•  Leinster not achieving a bonus point win in Exeter
•  Toulouse not getting any points from their match with Leicester.
•  Biarritz not getting a bonus point win
•  Northampton not getting a bonus point win and overtaking a three try scoring advantage

If Munster lose but get two losing bonus points (17pts) while Racing fail to get a winning bonus point or get a winning bonus point and don’t score at least two tries more than Munster, add the following to the above list:

•  Biarritz not winning
•  Castres not winning with a bonus point

If Racing win with a bonus point they’re dependent on all of the following happening:

•  Leicester losing to Toulouse and not getting a bonus point
•  Leinster losing to Exeter
•  Biarritz not winning
•  Northampton not winning
•  Castres not winning with a bonus point

If Saracens win with a bonus point they can get a home quarter final if, assuming Toulon and Clermont get a point from their games…

•  Ulster don’t get a winning bonus point and Saracens score at least three more tries than Ulster
•  Toulouse don’t get a winning bonus point
•  Toulouse get a winning bonus point but Saracens score at least four more tries than Toulouse

Pool 2: Toulouse and Leicester in a shootout for top slot

Final Fixtures: Sunday 3pm

• Leicester vs. Toulouse

Permutations

Both teams can win the group but Toulouse can still go through as runner-up without winning the game.

If Toulouse win with a bonus point, assuming Toulon and Clermont both get a single point from their games, they can get a home QF if Ulster don’t get a bonus point win (and score three tries fewer than Toulouse) and Saracens don’t win while scoring four more tries than Toulouse.

If Toulouse win without a bonus point, they’re through as pool winners; they’d get a home QF if Ulster don’t win and Saracens win without a bonus point.

If Toulouse lose but get both a try-scoring and a losing bonus point (20pts) and prevent Leicester getting a try-scoring bonus point, they’re through as pool winners.

If Toulouse lose but get a single bonus point (19pts) they’ll need four of the following to happen:

•  Montpellier drawing a blank against Toulon
•  Munster not beating Racing
•  Leinster not beating Exeter.
•  Biarritz not getting a winning bonus point while scoring more tries than Toulouse
•  Northampton not getting a winning bonus point while scoring nine more tries than Toulouse

If Leicester win with a bonus point (21pts), they’re through as pool winners. They can get a home QF if Ulster don’t win and Saracens lose.

If Leicester win without a bonus point (20pts) and allow Toulouse to get two bonus points, they’ll finish in second place and will need two of the following three things to happen:

•  Montpellier drawing a blank against Toulon
•  Munster not getting a bonus point win while scoring five more tries than Leicester
•  Leinster not getting a bonus point win while scoring six more tries than Leicester

Pool 3: Harlequins have won the group and sealed a home quarter final; Biarritz mathematically still have a chance of qualifying

Final Fixtures: Friday 8pm

• Biarritz vs. Harlequins

Permutations

Biarritz, currently on 14 points, need to beat Harlequins.

If Biarritz win with a bonus point (19pts), they’ll go through if three of the following four things happen:

•  Leinster lose to Exeter
•  Munster lose to Racing
•  Leicester lose to Toulouse
•  Montpellier lose to Toulon without getting a bonus point

If Biarritz win scoring less than four tries (18pts), they need to add the following to the above list of things they need:

•  Northampton not to get a winning bonus point
•  Castres not to get a winning bonus point and overtake a nine try scoring difference

 

Pool 4: Ulster have won the group; Northampton and Castres still with a slim chance of a runner-up slot

Final Fixtures: Saturday 1.35pm

• Glasgow vs. Northampton
• Castres vs. Ulster

Permutations

Ulster need a win and bonus point to be absolutely sure of a home quarter final; Northampton and Castres need to win and receive favours.

If Ulster win with a bonus point they’ll get a home quarter final.

If Ulster win without a bonus point then for a home QF they’re depending on Toulouse not getting a bonus point win, Saracens not scoring a hatful of tries against Edinburgh or Quins, Toulon or Clermont slipping up.

If Northampton win with a bonus point (19pts) they’ll finish second in the group and need four of the following five things to happen:

•  Leinster lose to Exeter
•  Munster lose to Racing
•  Leicester lose to Toulouse
•  Montpellier lose to Toulon without getting a bonus point
•  Biarritz not to get a winning bonus point and Northampton to have overtaken Biarritz’s 8 try scoring advantage

If Northampton win without a bonus point (18pts) and Castres don’t get a winning bonus point, the above list stays the same for Northampton, minus the impossibility of overtaking Biarritz’s try advantage.

If Castres win with a bonus point (18pts) and Northampton win without a bonus point, Castres will finish second as they have the edge on Northampton in the head to head try-scoring tiebreaker. To go through, Castres would need the same list of improbable favours as Northampton.

 

Pool 5: Clermont need a point to seal a home quarter final; Leinster are in the mix for a runner-up slot

Final Fixtures: Saturday 6pm

• Scarlets vs. Clermont
• Exeter vs. Leinster

Permutations (N.B. updated 15/01/13 12:38am with after scenario tip from @shaneoleary1)

Clermont get a home quarter final with a point from their match with Scarlets; Leinster need to win and are dependant on other results.

If Leinster win and get a bonus point (20pts) they need two of the following to happen:

•  Montpellier to get less than two points from their match with Toulon
•  Munster to fail to get a winning bonus point or get winning bonus point while scoring two fewer tries than Leinster
•  Either Toulouse to beat Leicester or lose without getting two bonus points (if the latter occurs, Leinster would need to have scored 11 tries against Exeter).

If Leinster win and fail to get a bonus point (19pts), add the following to the above:

•  Munster not to win while scoring at least as many tries as Leinster
•  Biarritz not to get a bonus point win against Harlequins (already assured of a home QF)
•  Northampton not to get a bonus point win against Glasgow while scoring at least three more tries than Leinster.

If Clermont get a point from the game, they secure a home QF.

If Clermont get zero points from the game, they can still get a home QF if the following happens:

•  Ulster don’t get a bonus point win
•  Toulouse don’t get a bonus point win while overtaking a 5 try scoring difference
•  Saracens don’t get a bonus point win while overtaking a 9 try scoring difference

 

Pool 6: Toulon need a point to secure a home quarter final; Montpellier can still win the group or go through as a runner up

Final Fixtures: Saturday 3.40pm

• Montpellier vs. Toulon

Permutations

If Toulon get a single point they win the group and get a home QF. After that, it gets interesting.

If Montpellier win with a bonus point and stop Toulon from getting a bonus point and score five more tries than Toulon (head to head tiebreaker) or, if head to head tries are equal, score 22 points more than Toulon (2nd head to head tiebreaker), Montpellier win the group and can still have a home QF if Ulster, Toulouse and Saracens don’t score the tries to catch them.

If Montpellier win without a bonus point, Toulon win the group and Montpellier will be into the quarter finals.

If Montpellier lose but get two losing bonus points (20pts), they’ll go through as long as Leinster and Munster don’t score a staggering number of tries on the day and Toulouse either beat Leicester or don’t get two losing bonus points and overtake Montpellier’s +1 try advantage.

If Montpellier lose but only get a single bonus point (19pts), they’ll go through if Munster and Leinster don’t get bonus point wins and Toulouse doesn’t get two losing bonus points.

If Montpellier get zero points from the game with Toulon (18pts) they can still go through if four of these five things happen:

•  Either Toulouse beat Leicester or lose without a bonus point and stay behind Montpellier on tries scored
•  Neither Munster nor Leinster win
•  Biarritz don’t get a bonus point win
•  Northampton don’t get a bonus point win
•  Castres don’t get a bonus point win while overtaking a 10 try scoring difference

 

Next weekend is one of the great rugby weekends of the year. Get the calculators out and enjoy it.

 

 

(P.S. there are a couple more possible scenarios here – for example Leinster and Munster can draw and still go through. But we’re getting into crazy obscure territory here. But if you’ve done the work, leave it in the comments or let me know via Twitter at @andymcgeady and I’ll add it in)