Some Days The Try Gods Are Smiling

What a weekend of rugby.

As an opening weekend it had few to match it in living memory. A glorious Irish opening half followed by a brave Welsh fightback; a famous Italian win as they held out against a French side battering the Italian tryline as the final whistle blew. And a decent 38-point England performance sandwiched in between. And Stuart Hogg.

All in all, great entertainment. And here’s a few notes that jumped out of the numbers.

Ireland’s Tackle Kings

The top five tackles counts on the opening weekend came from men in green jerseys, with Sean O’Brien topping the list at a barely-fathomable 23. But that’s what must be expected when one tries to hold out a Welsh side given 79% possession and 81% territory in the second half in the Millennium Stadium.

The Great Parisse

What a performance. Italy’s most effective carrier at a full 84 metres, beating France’s best, Wesley Fofana, by a metre on the day. Parisse was also Italy’s best tackler with ten, without a miss. And he threw in a try and a lineout steal for good measure. He’s untouchable at his best, and he was at his best on Sunday.

The French Lineout Splutters

France’s lineout, magnificent in the Autumn losing just one of 32 lineouts (for a throw that didn’t go five metres), spluttered in Rome. Of their 13 throw-ins the French emerged with possession just nine times.

Scotland’s kicking fixation

After a good start, Scotland went backwards quite quickly. They spent the match kicking the leather off the ball, on average putting boot to ball every fifth time it was touched by a man in a Scottish jersey.

On the whole the opening weekend had exactly the same percentage of kicks in play as would be expected, identical to the 2012 championship as a whole at 10%. However, when looking at the teams individually, and especially when compared to their averages in the 2012 season, it becomes apparent that the Scots threw the whole thing off a bit. But when compared to individual match totals from last year the differences are really not that significant.

Points and Tries

The big difference between this opening weekend and an “average” 2012 Six Nations weekend was the whirring numbers on the scoreboards in Cardiff, London and Rome.

An average 2012 weekend saw an average of 3 tries per game; this opening 2013 weekend saw an average of over 5 tries per game.

A 2012 weekend saw an average of 36 points per game; this opening 2013 weekend saw teams average just shy of a nice round 50.

As set out above, while there might not have been a difference in the overall number of kicks from play, there certainly was a difference in the number of penalty attempts.

Over a 2012 weekend there were an average of 21 penalty attempts at goal; 7 per game. Last weekend saw just 14 attempts at goal, over one attempt less per team. While there was indeed a drop in the number of penalties awarded per game in the first place, it was just half a penalty less per team – not significant.

So with the reduction in penalty attempts was there a difference in the number of set pieces? Did teams opt for scrums and lineouts instead?

  • 2012 scrums per game: 14
  • 2013 scrums per game: 14
  • 2012 lineouts per game: 23
  • 2013 lineouts per game: 24

No difference there, on the surface anyway.

Perhaps the drop in penalty attempts provided extra ball-in-play time? Not directly, no. When recalling those extra seven tries mentioned earlier, well they brought with them an extra seven conversion attempts meaning that the total number of place kick attempts last weekend was, funnily enough, the same as the 2012 average – 30 attempts.

What does all the above mean?

Obviously there were a lot more points scored per team on this opening weekend, with a lot more tries too. Each team made 38 more metres in total with ball in hand, the equivalent of a couple of decent carries that, if exciting enough like the Justin Tipuric variety, might stir the soul and seal themselves in the memory banks at the expense of other things that don’t get remembered. But this didn’t translate into a greater number of line breaks; 9.6 per game in a 2012 Six Nations game, 9.3 per game last weekend. 

The stats can’t reveal everything, but they can certainly reveal something. And perhaps this weekend it’s as simple as this:

  • Brian O’Driscoll drifts, delays the pass, all three Welsh defenders bite instead of one of them burying Simon Zebo over the touchline. Try scores.
  • A pass from Irish captain Jamie Heaslip slips behind the sprinting Zebo; a heel flicks out instinctively, impetuously, and after a bobble the ball lands softly in the winger’s arms rather than bouncing away impotently and Zebo being given a bollocking by his captain and coach. Try scores.
  • A long pass from Owen Farrell cuts out four men. It doesn’t drift forwards in the breeze. Try scores.

Some days the try gods are smiling.

 

This piece was also published by Balls.ie: http://www.balls.ie/rugby/rugby-nerds-recap-of-wales-v-ireland/

Comments
3 Responses to “Some Days The Try Gods Are Smiling”
  1. contraflow says:

    “Welsh side given 79% possession and 81% territory in the second half in the Millennium Stadium.”

    Can’t believe we won given this stat…

  2. Jimbob says:

    Great stats, great article. Keep up the good work!

Leave A Comment