Samoa to be close at half time; Wales to continue losing less badly
First published at the Paddy Power blog: http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/11/09/samoa-to-prove-no-handicap-to-ireland-in-schmidts-first-game-in-charge/
When it comes to debut games it’s been feast or famine for Irish coaches in the professional era. A couple of six try romping wins scattered among three losses where Ireland could only muster two tries between them. Which way will it go on Saturday against Samoa?
Ireland vs Samoa: 9 point handicap. Ireland 2/7, Samoa 5/2, Draw 25/1.
Samoa have it tough. The eternal travellers of the top-tier rugby world have played precisely one home test match against another IRB top ten side in the last decade (a 16-17 loss to Scotland in 2012) and have had a 20% win rate against Six Nations teams in that time. Playing against the French Barbarians and Georgia in the two weeks after their visit to Dublin, their Autumn schedule is hardly one befitting a team ranked seventh in the world. The Samoans are large and talented men and this is their biggest match of the tour by some distance.
Nine point handicap aside, a focused and fired-up Samoa would in many ways fancy themselves to take victory against an Ireland team whose last Six Nations outing saw them lose against Italy, a team disposed of handily by Samoa in their last test match in June. All the sweeter if such a win were to come in Dublin, home of test rugby’s administrative overseers.
Ireland, one place behind Samoa in the world rankings, are 2/7 favourites for the win but without Jonathan Sexton at the helm those nine points are somewhat enticing. Quite apart from his playmaking, Sexton has kicked 83% this season while Paddy Jackson has kicked just 64% of his goals in Pro 12 and Heineken Cup play. Ireland have named a bench full of impact talent but for anyone who reckons that Samoa can hold their own in the set piece versus a green Jack McGrath and cause some controlled chaos at the breakdown with flanker Jack Lam that handicap could be worth a punt.
If not, it’s 4/1 for Samoa to cover the half time handicap (+4) and Ireland to use their strong bench to win by more than nine by full time.
RefWatch: The true highlight of this match will be the man in the middle, Steve Walsh, a man whose hair is so lustrous he now referees under an Australian flag because New Zealand just wasn’t big enough.
Wales vs SA: 4 point handicap. Wales 6/4, SA 4/7, Draw 25/1
In the last 106 years Wales have played 26 tests against South Africa, winning just once in 1999. However you dress that up, it’s a pig of a run. But things might be looking up for the men of the valleys against the men of the high veld. Since 2008 Wales have played South Africa six times. That they lost all six of those games is not interesting, but it’s worth noting that their margin of defeat has been declining.
South Africa had an excellent Rugby Championship, beaten only by an outstanding New Zealand side in Ellis Park in one of the greatest games of rugby seen in a long time. Wales are a team full of Lions playing their first test together again for their country since beating the Australians on tour.
RefWatch: Alain Rolland. The former international scrum half who sent off Sam Warburton in the 2011 Rugby World Cup semi-final takes charge of his final Autumn test before retiring at the end of the season. A 5.30pm kick-off is an interesting decision, introducing the probability of a well-lubricated 5.30pm
A gut call says Wales cover the handicap but the fun bet will be a few quid on a cheeky draw.
Really enjoying the articles – a different view.
Attended Lansdowne Rd on Saturday, for about my 200th international, and was very struck by the number of times the clock was stopped. The match lasted a full two hours – 5.45 – 7.45 – and by my reckoning there were about 15 stoppages of the clock (very few, incidentally, for TMO references). I wonder whether any stats are available on this sort of thing. In my opinion, we’ve reached a tipping point at which the game has now become one of individual, punctuated ‘plays’, as in American football or baseball. The behaviour of the crowd is a clue to this: constantly leaving and re-entering, buying drinks and snacks, texting and emailing. The girl beside me left her seat seven times during the game. Not very conducive to a ‘traditional’ Lansdowne Rd atmosphere. But there’s such a long time during which nothing is happening on the pitch that it was hard to blame her.
Very fair point.
Firstly while the game has gone this way a little bit, the supporters are only acting like this because they’re encouraged to do so. This is a much rarer complaint at provincial games and non-existent at club games.
Most halves last 45mins of actual time. The match itself was late in starting by a few minutes. Couple that with a half time of 12mins, a serious clash of heads where both players were removed from the field and you are easily approaching the 2hrs.
Set plays are easier to coach and execute in an effort to unlock the league adopted defences we are now accustom to in union. However, the games standard-bearers play heads up rugby and win matches through superior fitness and having the ball in play longer than anyone else.
Interesting comment, Andrew. I certainly know what you mean by the stop-start nature of the game. Aside from injuries and TMO shenanigans there were a lot of scrums in the Ireland match, far more than any other Autumn test so far. In fact by my reckoning anyone in attendance on Saturday saw the most scrums in a test match involving top ten sides in 2013 (Six Nations / June tests / Rugby Championship / Autumn tests).
Total Scrums (via ESPNscrum.com)
************
21 – Irl/Samoa
16 – Eng/Aus
15 – Ita/Aus
13 – Wal/SA
12 – Sco/Japan
12 – Fra/NZ
8 – Eng/Arg
Without digging any further, that’s a significant number of extra stoppages in play right there, and it would be reasonable to say that from scrums alone (all other things being equal) the ball was in play for over 10 more minutes in England/Arg than Ireland/Samoa.