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Leinster vs Munster

Leinster and Munster will play tomorrow in the glow of an Irish Six Nations victory, but with Munster considering themselves to have been underrepresented in the campaign there’s a bit of spice added to the Lansdowne Road Sell-Out*.

* some might say this term could equally be applied to the set of circumstances that have led to Ireland being required to play their 2014 Autumn test match against Georgia at the potentially echoing Aviva Stadium rather than in, say, a redeveloped and packed Ravenhill

With 17 league games played each, the sides occupy the top two spots in the Pro 12 and their per game stats make for interesting reading.Screen Shot 2014-03-28 at 19.30.14

Not only have Leinster and Munster scored the same*** number of points per game in the Pro 12 this season, they’ve matched each other try for try as well. And penalty goals. And conversions. And their goal kicking success rate*.

It’s eerie.

* Saturday’s starting Ians – Madigan and Keatley – are not so similar, however, with 80% and 66% accuracy respectively in Pro 12 play (Jimmy Gopperth’s at 75%; JJ Hanrahan 89%)

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Looking a little further, both teams have picked up 12 penalties per game from their opponents while Leinster lead the Pro 12 in conceding just 9.2 penalties per game (Munster’s 10.2 is fourth best). They’re tied on turnovers conceded too with 14.4 apiece.

With the ball, both teams have kicked 23 balls in play per game, retained 95% of their own rucks while making 5 and a half line breaks. The set piece? Leinster 86%, Munster 87%.

Screen Shot 2014-03-28 at 13.39.00There are differences of course; Leinster have conceded half as many tries again as Munster, for example (26 to 17 over the course of the season). But after looking back at Ireland’s victorious Six Nations campaign there’s a particularly interesting difference in the per-game playing stats.

Leinster have had almost two full minutes more active possession per game, as witnessed in their larger carry numbers (a Pro 12 highest 115 to Munster’s 97) and their number of rucks won (87 to 70). And despite this extra ball in hand Leinster have made a Pro 12 lowest 6.6 offloads per game, two fewer than Munster.

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Murray Kinsella has written about Ireland’s lack of offloads in the 2014 Six Nations with Joe Schmidt preferring the certainty of controlled ruck possession. It’s been written often that this same Irish team and squad contains a host of Leinster players, both first and second choice. So it perhaps should not be too surprising to see some stats for Leinster that echo those of Joe Schmidt’s Ireland.

This is no normal Pro 12 game, it’s a Heineken Cup tune-up and battle between brothers. So perhaps all of the above can be thrown out as being a load of stats-fondling.

But… what money on the draw?

 

P.S. Match referee Pascal Gauzere has given just two free kicks for crooked feeds this season in fourteen Top 14 and Six Nations games in 2013/14. In a world where Leinster hooker Sean Cronin has found it difficult to raise his leg to hook this season, that sort of information can be valuable. Updated 28/03/14 15:45 Alain Rolland will be refereeing Saturday’s contest instead of the injured Monsieur Gauzere. In Top 14, Pro 12, Heineken Cup and Six Nations games this season Rolland has given out yellow cards at roughly half the rate of Gauzere.

 

*** The points scored table originally had a copy and paste error showing both teams to have 24.2 points per game instead of 24.4 and 24.2. This was caught in a recheck but not before it was published. Error was mine alone. Updated 19:38.

 

Credit: all stats courtesy of Opta.

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